Area-based Models of New Highway Route Growth

Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where the new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and secondary highways. Interstates, however, are not modeled here and are used as a predictor in modeling the growth of divided highways and secondary highways. The results show that the area’s land-use attributes and population density level do have significant relationship with the area’s likelihood of adding new highway routes.